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Issue link: http://digital.canadawide.com/i/1222419
G O F I G U R E APRIL 2020 BCBUSINESS 15 COLLIERS, ART BASEL, STATISTICS CANADA, ARTNEWS, HEFFEL FINE ART AUCTION HOUSE Smooth Sailing... Right? As the provincial housing market trades speculation for what looks like stability, expect government to intervene less in 2020 by Steve Saretsky P R OP E R T Y WAT C H N ow that we've all caught our breath, what's next for resi- dential property in B.C.? The market took a much-needed cool-down in 2019, when both sales and prices dropped about 1.5 percent, according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association. The declines were particularly concentrated in Metro Vancouver, which felt the impacts of a federal mort- gage stress test and a bevy of taxes from the NDP provincial government. Those measures sent inves- tors to the sidelines and pulled a big chunk of demand out of condo presales. As a result, developers pumped the brakes on new project launches, re- sulting in a 30-percent drop in 2019, Vancouver-based data provider Urban Analytics re- ports. New units released fell 60 percent versus the previous year, sending new home sales tumbling 50 percent. In recent months, though, the tides have been shifting again. There's a renewed sense of confidence as mortgage rates head back toward previ- ous lows. Buyers are hitting the bid once more: the BCREA notes that MLS recorded 4,426 residential unit sales in Janu- ary 2020, a 23.7-percent jump from 3,579 a year earlier. Total sales dollar volume was $3.2 billion, up 35 percent over the same month in 2019. Meanwhile, active listings fell 12.6 percent year-over-year, putting upward pressure on prices. The average MLS resi- dential price in B.C. climbed to $725,370 in January, a 9.1-per- cent increase from 12 months earlier. That's encouraging news for those working the in- dustry, much less so for anyone trying to buy their first home. While the market works itself out, 2020 will probably see a more hands-off approach from government. After Feb- ruary's provincial budget an- nouncement, Finance Minister and Deputy Premier Carole James offered her outlook. "People actually have some hope of getting in the market; they're actually starting to look again," James told reporters. "I don't think there's anyone who would say we've reached affordable housing in British Columbia, but what you aren't seeing is the kind of spikes you were seeing with the specula- tive real estate market." The 2020 provincial budget predicts that the rebound in sales will continue, with some $56 billion in residential prop- erty sales projected this fiscal year. The budget also pegs revenue from the property transfer tax to rise slightly, to $1.5 billion—nearly the same amount it generated in 2015, before real estate prices sky- rocketed across the province. Given these signs that stabil- ity has returned, James and other policy-makers must be hoping it lasts. • US$67.4 billion VALUE OF THE GLOBAL ART MARKET IN 2018 LEADING COUNTRIES BY MARKET SHARE 44% U.S. 21% U.K. 19% China In 2019, British Columbians imported $29,328,878 worth of original paint- ings, drawings and pastels from 47 countries Exports: $23,663,131 83% of exports by value went to the U.S. 4 The Rennie Collection includes about 2,100 works by 370 artists Purchase price of the first piece of artwork Bob Rennie bought (a Norman Rockwell print, in 1974): US$375 Purchase price of Untitled (Red, Black, Green) by Kerry James Marshall, which Rennie bought in 2011-12: US$26 million Canadians made the 2019 ArtNews Top 200 global art collectors list 3 work in real estate 1 (Bob Rennie) is from B.C. B.C.'s highest-grossing art auction, which took place in Vancouver in 2007, totalled $23,033,925 in sales Highest-priced painting by a B.C. artist sold by Vancouver- founded Heffel Fine Art Auction House: The Crazy Stair (The Crooked Staircase) by Emily Carr, selling for $3,393,000 in 2016 • Housing Gap Driven by a sharp decline in project launches, new home sales plunged 50 percent in B.C. last year 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 SOURCE: URBAN ANALYTICS 0 50 100 150 200 250 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 UNITS RELEASED UNITS SOLD PROJECTS LAUNCHED UNITS RELEASED AND SOLD PROJECTS LAUNCHED