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Issue link: http://digital.canadawide.com/i/526329
bcbusiness.ca july 2015 BCBusiness 147 With the four-year research project now in its final stages, Aitken says there isn't much that she can show me. "We just killed the last tree two weeks ago," she says with a laugh, explaining that after observing seedlings that were grown under controlled conditions, the final stage in the evidence-gathering part of the project was to uproot the seedlings and take detailed measurements of roots, needles and other features before sending the remains to the compost. All the valuable information now resides on her computer, Aitken says, and she swivels the monitor to show me some highlights. The most striking images are a series of maps com- piled by her colleague in the faculty of forestry, Tongli Wang. The first pair of maps compares today's temperatures to those expected in the 2080s. While today's map depicts much of B.C. in cool blues, by the 2080s there's no blue in sight; the province is almost entirely orange and red, representing a rise in annual mean temperature of approximately five degrees Celsius across the province. A second pair of maps illustrates how the rise in temperature is expected to affect the distribution of tree species. In the first of these maps, depicting tree populations today, about a quarter of the province—a vast swath of the Interior with Prince George at its centre—is slate blue, indicating a zone charac- terized by a preponderance of spruce, pine and fir. Fast-forward to the 2080s, and this slate- blue sub-boreal spruce zone has nearly disap- peared: it is now relegated to a couple of small patches in the far north. The area surrounding Prince George is now olive green, depicting a zone that is more typically home to subspecies of cedar and hemlock. Changes throughout the rest of the province are equally striking: a patch of light green in the north is replaced by purple, representing a shift from a mostly barren alpine zone to one hospitable to forests of spruce and subalpine fir. A light blue patch representing lodgepole pine forest in the Southern Interior gives way to a climatic zone more suited to Douglas fir. The expected shifting of the province's cli- mate zones doesn't mean that all the spruce, pine and fir now growing near Prince George, for example, will be dead by 2080; it means that because those trees won't be growing in conditions ideally suited to their species, they'll be susceptible to threats such as drought, disease and insects. The aim of current research undertaken by Aitken and others is to ensure that B.C.'s forests of tomorrow will be suited to their envi- ronments and will be healthy enough to withstand whatever threats may be in store. It's Getting Hot Out There By 2080, B.C.'s annual mean temperature is expected to rise approximately five degrees Celsius across the province mean annual temPerature (°c) sourCe: TonGli WanG, cenTRe foR foResT conseRvaTion GeneTics, ubc Climate Zones Current Climate Zones 2080s High 15º low -16º The aim of current research undertaken by Aitken and others is to ensure that B.C.'s forests of tomor- row will be suited to their environ- ments and will be healthy enough to withstand whatever threats may be in store