BCBusiness

R E N N I E G R O U P S p e c i a l F e a t u r e Relative to this level of demand, housing starts and completions can help shed some light on the supply that is expected to come to market in the coming years. For example, in 2017 there will be an estimated 26,700 housing completions which, given the current number of starts, is expected to fall toward 24,200 by 2021. This relates to 21,700 net additional units demanded in 2017, increasing to 22,400 by 2021. While completions may appear to be high when compared to additional demand over the 2017 to 2021 period, a couple of points must be made. First, completions should on average exceed net additional occupancy demand, as there will always be units built to satisfy replacement demand, or the rebuilding of homes that have reached the end of their functional life. While these units will appear in the starts and completions data, they are simply replacing old dwellings and thus are not adding to the stock of available housing and ful•lling additional demand. Second, there are periods when completions have fallen well below additional demand. Over the past 20 years, the Lower Mainland's housing market has gone through two distinct phases of under- building. The most recent spanned 2012 to 2016, a period that coincided with rapidly rising prices and historically low vacancy rates, a consequence of those basic supply and demand dynamics we learned about back in Econ 101. However, with the number of starts hitting 20-year highs in both 2015 and 2016 (an average of 26,700 units in each of those two years), supply is expected to exceed additional occupancy demand in the next couple of years and will, we hope, ease some of the price and vacancy pressures that have developed in the recent past. So You Want to Buy a Condo Greg Zayadi has some sound advice when it comes to Lower Mainland condos Greg Zayadi is the senior vice-president of Rennie Group's Developer Services division. We caught up with him to get his perspective on the condo and pre-sale real estate market in the Lower Mainland—and the notion that local buyers are being excluded. The new-condo market in the Lower Mainland is exceptionally robust right now. What are the most popular areas for development? The simplest answer is anywhere that you see good planning policy meeting rapid transit. Our market has been undeniably changed over the past decade to the point that we can now say we are certainly an urbanized region. Some areas of the region have transformed faster than others—the city of Burnaby, as an example, focused on the growth of key city centres. Metrotown, Brentwood and Lougheed have all evolved rapidly into new urban nodes because of that proactive planning and vision. New Westminster has experienced steady growth because they were able to focus their planning e•orts around the [SkyTrain] stations in their city, and the Brewery District is an excellent example of how new neighbourhoods can be introduced. What areas are also on your radar? Personally, I am excited about North Vancouver—•rst and foremost because it is one of the only areas north of the Fraser that will be delivering new townhome Homeowners who downsize to condos still demand space and luxury finishings. Once they downsize, they often help out their chil- dren with down payments. Pictured here, the Elenore development in Vancouver PHOTO COUR T ESY OF RENNIE GROUP

• Cover