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GR A PH COUR T ESY OF RENNIE GROUP S p e c i a l F e a t u r e So what about the city of Vancouver? If the truism were to ring true, we would expect that cohort changes at the city level would di'er signiŠcantly from the regional proŠle. Indeed, the data conŠrm this, with almost all of the under-30 cohorts showing net gains (save for the under-Šve cohort, which declined slightly) between 2011 and 2016 in the city. In other words, net out-migration of the city of Vancouver's population is seen beginning at the 30- to 34-year-old cohort—much younger than the regional pattern where it begins with the 45- to 49-year-old cohort. With home prices that well exceed the regional average, this pattern of change could be seen as support for the notion that prices are pushing millennials from the city. However, a closer look at the data shows that this net out-ow occurs not for the millennials (those born after 1984), but for the Gen-Xers (born between 1965 and 1983). So it appears that it is Gen-Xers who we should be concerned about. Further to this, the unique pattern of cohort change for the city of Vancouver has been remarkably stable for more than two decades, a period spanning years of both rapid home price increase (2014 to 2016), and relative stagnation (1981 to 1987, and 1994 to 2002). So what is driving this pattern? While prices will certainly have an impact, the pattern is more likely explained by Vancouver's unique mix of housing, both in terms of its form and tenure. For example, Vancouver has the second- highest share of dwellings in high-rise apartment formats in the region at 29 per cent, with New Westminster Šrst at 32 per cent. Present-day Gen-Xers, along with their earlier counterparts, may simply be leaving the city in search of housing that can better accommodate the needs of their growing families. Similarly, the city has the greatest share of rental accommodation in the region, at more than 50 per cent of all households. This pattern simply may be a product of growing families seeking home ownership and needing to look outside of the city. In some senses, this notion is supported by the regional proŠle that shows net gains up to the age of 45, as some of these movers would potentially be those moving out of the city into surrounding municipalities in search of housing opportunities not found in the city. The numbers reveal the plight of future generations as they likely aspire to ground-oriented, owner-occupied housing forms within the older core of this region. And this highlights the need to focus on developing e'ective local land use, zoning and housing policies to ensure a broad diversity of housing types, tenures and prices are added within the city. The Demands of Housing Supply in the Lower Mainland Region will need to build 22,000 net additional homes each year to 2021 If housing is fundamentally about people, then housing-market dynamics are about supply and demand. From price increases and multiple-o'er scenarios to rents, renovictions and vacancy rates, many aspects of the housing market are in-uenced by the interplay between how much housing is available and how much is needed. The Lower Mainland is home to 2.86 million people living in 1.11 million homes. Though the region has grown each year— averaging 34,500 additional people and 14,900 additional occupied dwellings annually between 1997 and 2016—this growth has been uneven, with an average of 26,400 people added in the early-2000s compared to 36,100 added each year in the past half-decade. Annual immigration to Canada currently sits at just over 300,000 people, and is expected to edge up slightly from this level between 2017 and 2021. In part based on this national outlook, total population growth in the Lower Mainland region that stretches from Squamish to Hope is expected to average more than 47,000 annually over the next Šve years. To accommodate the needs of our growing and changing population, the region will need to build 22,000 net additional homes each year to 2021. This additional demand would be 14 per cent higher than any Šve-year period in the past two decades. Data (right) show the net outflow population in Greater Vancouver occurs not for millennials but the Gen-X generation Population BY 5 YEAR AGE GROUPS City of Vancouver 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 -10,000 0 NET COHORT CHANGE 10,000 POPULATION BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUPS | CITY OF VANCOUVER

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