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Issue link: http://digital.canadawide.com/i/411627
40 BCBusiness December 2014 But those nation-building ambitions faded as Clark prepared for a tough election campaign in the spring of 2013. The governing BC Liberals appeared to be headed for defeat, and their leader needed a big idea to capture voters' attention. The idea she seized on was a made-in-B.C. industry based upon liq- uefied natural gas. But it would conflict with the movement of Alberta's oil to the coast. With growing opposition to oil pipeline expansion in her province, Clark needed to keep oil and gas apart. She would create barriers to new oil pipelines while promoting natural gas as the clean and safe alternative. In the final week of the election campaign, the Liberal leader was in full rhetorical flight. "The pipelines that are of most interest to British Columbians are liquefied natural gas," Clark told the Globe's editorial board in early May 2013. "That's something we can do and we don't need the federal government and we don't need Alberta." While Clark's remarks would further irritate intergovernmental relations with Ottawa and Alberta, they did not surprise. Days before she publicly unveiled her "five conditions" in the summer of 2012, Clark phoned Prime Minister Stephen Harper to warn him of her plans, threatening to block either the Enbridge Northern Gateway project or Kinder Morgan's proposed Trans Mountain expansion if her demands were not met. Those five conditions set increas- ingly high hurdles for approval of any new heavy oil pipeline project. The first, approval by federal regulatory agencies, was the easiest. "World- leading" marine and on-land oil spill protection standards are subjective, though new regulations from Ottawa in April go a long way toward satisfying that demand. The fourth condition— aboriginal engagement, participation and accommodation—could be near impossible. And until that is met, B.C. won't even discuss the fifth condition: a "fair share" of the fiscal benefits to British Columbia. By drawing a line in the sand, Clark infuriated the Harper government, which has been an enthusiastic booster for the Enbridge proposal. But her carefully crafted position in the 2013 election, in which she campaigned for resource development in general but talked tough on oil pipelines, landed her a new mandate from voters in a province that is so often torn over the competing desires for economic devel- opment and environmental protection. That election is behind her, and the next one is still a safe distance away. But having won re-election with a promise of a debt-free B.C. based on hoped-for LNG riches, the premier still does not want to risk a resource devel- opment backlash that could thwart her ambitions. That presents a tall order for Alberta, for Ottawa and for industry: can they walk Clark back to the point where she wants to unlock the big contribution that the oil sands make to Canada? the FinanCial staKes of getting Alberta oil to new markets are high, but the returns vary depend- ing on where you live. The Canadian Energy Research Institute, in a July 2012 report, esti- mated that by the year 2035, comple- tion of both the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline and Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain expansion project would generate roughly $680 billion in economic growth for Canada. But by province, the incremental tax benefits look very different, according to the CERI study. While Alberta would reap $133 billion, British Columbia could expect to collect just $2 billion. Another report, this one by the Cal- gary-based research firm Wright Man- sell in March 2010, looked only at the Northern Gateway project and arrived at a rosier picture: British Columbia could expect to collect $6.7 billion, or 8.2 per cent of the total $81 billion in incremental taxation revenue. While that take is significant, Clark maintains it isn't really a fair share, especially con- sidering that B.C. would carry 100 per cent of the marine risk and a significant proportion of the land-based risk. On the surface, Northern Gateway appears to be dead in the water, with B.C.'s premier showing no interest in the fate of the project. Clark has prom- ised voters in B.C. that her government will pay off the provincial debt with LNG riches—and First Nations support for LNG development is critical. That talKing pipelines We asked market research firm Insights West to poll Albertans and British Columbians on their attitudes regarding pipe- lines. For pollster Mario Canseco, two things stood out: one, Albertans were almost as concerned about the environment as their crunchy-granola neigh- bours (with 59 per cent of Albertans believing it was more important to protect the environment than foster economic growth, compared to 65 per cent of British Colum- bians). "This notion of the economy taking priority over environmental issues is not supported by a lot of people in both provinces," says Canseco. And second? Sixty- two per cent of Albertans are willing to give B.C. a share of oil revenues from Northern Gateway—one of B.C. Premier Christy Clark's five conditions for getting a pipeline built but a demand vehemently opposed by for- mer Alberta premier Alison Redford. Canseco thinks it might have something to do with the more conciliatory tone set by new Alberta pre- mier Jim Prentice. "There's a lot of trust in him to do the right thing and handle negotiations properly." The survey of 802 Brit- ish Columbians and 705 Albertans was conducted Oct. 3-8, 2014. Margins of error are +/- 3.5% and +/-3.7% for B.C. and Alberta, respectively. Read the full results and analysis online at BCBusiness.ca/pipelines. Details from an exclusive survey by Insights West for BCBusiness and Alberta Venture 62% Of Albertans "trust the new Alberta government to properly handle negotiations with B.C. on Northern Gateway" the west speaKs out