BCBusiness

COURTESY Of CHARLES mONTGOmERY jULY/AUGUST 2018 BCBusiness 41 Vancouver experienced the greatest build- ing period in its history—but. "Vancouver's population has pretty much chugged along," he says. "There are many places where the population grew much faster, but the home prices did not." The terrifying thing about the "Up, Up and Away!" scenario is that all of the factors nec- essary for it to occur exist. To address them, we've already seen extraordinary measures. Federally, the B 20 ‚nancial stress test now makes it likely that lenders will reject almost one in ‚ve mortgage applications subject to the test. Vancouver's Empty Homes Tax is up and running, though initial results indicate far fewer empty homes, or honest disclo- sures, than expected. Provincially, raising the existing foreign buyer tax to 20 percent, instituting a so-called speculation tax (that initially cast its net far too wide) and an additional "school tax" levy on homes assessed north of $3 million were key moves. The last measure has the furthest- reaching implications, signalling the shift from income to wealth taxation. Although loathed by some, this ensures that, say, the aŒuent subur- ban homeowner claiming a Downtown Eastside income can no longer escape paying their fair share while at the same time often amassing unheard-of equity gains. So much in play—all of it designed to give us a breather to create a more equitable, inclusive and, yes, even happier place. But what would that place look like? Single-family homes would be scarcer— perhaps a necessary shift in a city where for every demolished house, only ‚ve housing units get built. (In Toronto and Montreal, the ratios are 20:1 and 30:1, respectively.) In these newly densi‚ed areas, what will you build? Purpose-built rental and social housing units are less pro‚table for developers, so they'd need incentives to take on these projects. Another problem, less discussed? Those kinds of dwellings are less pro˜itable for cities, too, UVic economist Elisabeth Gugl notes. Compared to, say, the larger municipal districts of Ontario, which can spread housing policy over a larger tax base, the relatively small Vancouver and Victoria regions compete with nearby municipalities for property tax dollars. They face a stark choice: build rental accommodation and forgo signi‚cant tax revenue, or approve condos. There are alternatives. To address what's known as the missing middle—the lack of mul- tifamily homes that were once integrated into blocks of predominantly single-family dwellings, like, for example, the walk-up apartments of Van- couver's Kitsilano and South Granville areas— some have suggested other means of making space within established neighbourhoods. "Imagine a world where you could take a single- family lot, or two, and create not just three dwell- ing units per lot, but maybe six or seven. And let's imagine that every third or fourth unit would be part of an ažordable housing pool in perpetuity," Montgomery muses. "Individual property own- ers could, on a small scale, begin to rebuild the city in a way that made room for more people who want to live and work here, while making pro‚t and creating opportunities for long-term ažordability." In other words, allow homeowners to mon- etize their land and assume some of the redevel- opment heavy lifting—while creating living spaces that, in their intimacy, theoretically encourage neighbourliness. It's pretty to think so. But are we too late? Now that we're on the international radar, are we just a long play for global investors and domestic specu- lators? One thing's certain. The future isn't what it used to be. ¢ To address the missing middle, allow homeowners to monetize their land and assume some of the redevelopment heavy lifting—while creating living spaces that, in their intimacy, theoretically encourage neighbourliness NOT THaT sImpLE Vancouver must do more than boost housing supply, consultant Charles Montgomery says

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