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BCBUSINESS.CA MARCH 2016 BCBUSINESS 29 the master planned River District and the former RCMP headquarters between 33rd and 37th. While he stopped short of suggesting that we don't need further rezoning, he made it clear that there's no reason to panic. Those still inside the city apparatus are more circum- spect when discussing plans for densification, however. In a December email exchange, Randy Pecarski, acting assistant director of city-wide and regional planning for the City of Vancouver, explained that growth projections are a combination of existing zoning capacity blended with various policy plans. Plans that have allowed for density in the Cambie Corridor or the Olympic Village area, for example, are already figured into the growth equation. "In the case of Cambie Corridor, much of it is currently zoned single-family, but the capacity is mid-rise, multi-family devel- opment as approved by Council," wrote Pecarski. Ditto with Olympic Village's Southeast False Creek neighbourhood, which is industrial but open to rezoning because of a council policy plan. Elizabeth Murphy, a former develop- ment officer with the city's real estate and housing department, who worked on large-scale projects such as Coal Harbour, Arbutus Lands and Northeast False Creek, believes we've already got all the zoning capacity we need. She's been chasing city staff for a firm answer on zoning capacity for years and even tried filing a freedom of information request that didn't turn up any num- bers. "I have been after them forever," says Murphy, now a private project man- ager for multi-family housing projects. "The thing is, we are absolutely awash in existing zoning capacity. But every time a project comes forward, the justi- fication is, 'Where are we going to put all these people?' The city is representing it as a crisis when it's anything but a crisis. They are trying to justify development." Compared to the rest of the region, Vancouver will have a relatively easy time accommodating newcomers: it grew only 4.4 per cent between census years 2006 and 2011, while Port Moody grew by almost 19.9 per cent and Surrey by 18.6 per cent over the same timeframe. Even so, in 2014 Vancouver had 45 per cent more housing starts than Surrey. "The growth in abso- lute numbers of dwelling units is highest in Vancou- ver, but the population is growing faster in the city of Surrey," notes Patrick Condon, UBC's chair of urban design. "That speaks to the point that some of these new housing units aren't occupied at all, or are occupied by one person or temporarily occupied. That's not the case in Surrey, where if a housing unit is built, you can be sure there will be at least three people in it." In Vancouver, talk of growth intersects with the investment of outside money—and although there's no firm data, it's clear that developers are courting foreign money, especially when marketing luxury condos. Holborn Group, for example, is developing the high- priced Trump International Hotel & Tower where the majority of units will be priced around $1 million and top out around $20 million for the penthouse. Bosa is proposing a 50-storey luxury tower at 1500 West Georgia, designed by world-renowned architect Ole Scheeren, while a luxury 58-unit Intra- corp project will go up at 1177 Jervis Street in the West End, with pre- sale prices starting at $1 million. With a median h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e of around $70,000, Vancouverites—it's fair to surmise—often aren't the buyers. "This is the first time in the North American experience where the simple laws of supply and demand can be called into question," says UBC's Condon. "There is ample evidence that the more luxury commod- ity you supply—which seems to be what we're doing in Vancouver— the more people from outside the community you will attract to invest. So the creation of more luxury condos doesn't positively affect the local market by increas- ing supply and lowering price. It could make it worse. Most of the product being sold is $800 a square foot or higher." In a May 2015 letter to Premier Christy Clark, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson called for a luxury housing tax, a levy on property flipping and amendments to the Vancouver Charter to track property ownership and reduce unoccupied homes in the city. He wrote: "The escalation in housing prices coincides with increasing "THERE IS AMPLE EVIDENCE THAT THE MORE LUXURY COM- MODITY YOU SUPPLY, THE MORE PEOPLE FROM OUTSIDE THE COMMUNITY YOU ATTRACT," SAYS UBC'S PATRICK CONDON. "SO THE CREATION OF MORE LUXURY CONDOS DOESN'T POSITIVELY AFFECT THE LOCAL MARKET... IT COULD MAKE IT WORSE"

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