O N T H E E D G E O F D I S A S T E R
"The issue is the cost of
building homes is now more
expensive than what 80 percent
of the population can afford."
ANNE McMULLIN,
PRESIDENT AND CEO, URBAN
DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE (UDI)
32 | BC B U S I N E SS OCTOB ER 2025
DEVASTATING
ECONOMIC FALLOUT
The economic impact of a slowdown in
residential construction could be immense.
There's more than $2.2 billion in
property-transfer tax revenue from real
estate transactions at risk for the provincial
government—during a record deficit year. It
had budgeted an average 5.5 percent annual
growth in transfer tax revenue. That's not
happening. Nor is a budgeted jump in
housing starts.
Roughly 10 percent of B.C.'s GDP is linked
to its 250,000 construction jobs, half of
which are in residential housing, says Chris
Gardner, president of the Independent
Contractors and Businesses Association.
When developers pause or cancel
projects, it ripples through the various
companies that perform jobs related
to the various aspects of construction:
mechanical, electrical, HVAC, drywall, civil
contracting, rebar, marketing, architecture,
engineering and more.
"Contractors have started to lay people
off in numbers we haven't seen in a decade,"
says Gardner.
"I think 2026 is going to be a year where
you'll see more of that."
PERIL AHEAD
Metro Vancouver saw 1,472 presales for
high-rise concrete condos in the first two
quarters of 2025, says Stefan Greiner,
vice-president of Zonda Urban, the presale
tracking firm. At that rate, the region is on
track for a 20-percent decline in high-rise
concrete presales from 2024, and 53 per-
cent from 2023. Only one concrete high-rise
project launched in the second quarter.
The region is also on track for a 33-per-
cent decline in all presales (wood and con-
crete buildings) this year from last. And
presales overall are down 50 percent com-
pared to longer-term historical averages.
"That's a big collapse," says Greiner.
As a result, residential construction has
stalled. More than 22 percent of land sales
over $5 million in the first quarter of 2025
were court-ordered—double the amount
over the same period last year, according to
UDI. The institute estimates that the region's
unsold condo inventory will increase by
more than 60 percent this year.
Of the 16,589 presale units on the market
in the second quarter of 2025, more than
61 percent are in the "danger zone," where
project presales lag far behind 70 percent
targets, says Greiner.
Some developers are cancelling projects,
while others are converting midstream to
rentals.
The 60-storey Curv luxury project in
Vancouver's West End, from Brivia Group,
appears to be teetering into insolvency.
Tangerine Developments flipped a 379-unit
condo plan in Surrey into rentals last month.
Wesgroup converted a 294-condo tower in
New Westminster into rental in 2024, using
a $135-million loan from Canada Mortgage
and Housing Corporation.
