BCBusiness

To p : R o m a n S a m b o r s k y i / S h u t t e r s t o c k ; t o p r i g h t : J o k o /A d o b e S t o c k ; b o t t o m : N g u p a k a r t i / S h u t t e r s t o c k reckoning will set in. "There's some pain in the forecast for Northern B.C.," confirms Joel McKay, CEO of the Northern Develop- ment Initiative Trust. On the positive side, there is ongoing investment in transpor- tation infrastructure in and to the Port of Prince Rupert and activity coming for the Blackwater and Cariboo gold mines. But forest-dependent communities such as Fraser Lake, Mackenzie, Houston, Quesnel and Vanderhoof have their work cut out for them in terms of reinventing themselves. We'll stop ignoring the provincial deficit. "It's the largest in our history, sitting at $9 billion now [for the 2024-25 fiscal year] and it could go higher," laments Bridgitte Anderson, president and CEO of the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade. It's already prompted downgrades from credit rating agencies and a warning from the Bank of Canada. The next provincial government will have to tackle it with some combina- tion of higher taxes and fees and spending cuts once the election dust has settled. MINING Spurred by strong demand for gold, silver and minerals critical to the energy transition, a dozen mining projects are now just a permit or two away from starting construc- tion. Getting even half of them up and running over the next few years would move the needle for the provincial economy, Peacock says. FILM AND TELEVISION "The province's film and digital media has been flourishing," Battaglia says. However, produc- tion spending may have peaked as streaming services trim spending in an effort to achieve profitability. YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'VE GOT... Looking back, B.C. has been blessed with a number of unearned natural advantages over the past quarter century. Its appealing climate and lifestyle (by Canadian standards) made it attractive to well-educated young people who staffed and in some cases founded companies in knowledge industries like information technology, biotech and athletic fashion design. Its location on the Pacific Ocean and diverse population helped it benefit more than other jurisdictions from the rise of China and other Asian economies. Over the past decade especially, new extraction technol- ogy and market dynamics in the energy sector made it the recipient of huge new investments in energy infrastructure. Time marches on, though, and none of these blessings are what they used to be. The high cost of living has taken some of the shine off B.C.'s vaunted lifestyle. As Battaglia puts it: "Quickly deterio- rating housing affordability could make it more difficult for communi- ties to attract and retain talent. We're already seeing this with the share of interprovincial migrants from Ontario to B.C. reaching its lowest level in over a decade." Meanwhile, a retreat from globalization and an increasingly polarized world has diminished the province's Asia advantage. And the megaprojects are all done, probably not to be repeated. We can wait and hope for the next undeserved gift to fall into our laps. Or we can get to work with what we have. 53 B C B U S I N E S S . C A J A N U A R Y/ F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 5

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