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B C B U S I N E S S . C A
J A N U A R Y/ F E B R U A R Y
2 0 2 5
To p t o b o t t o m : B o r o d a t c h / S h u t t e r s t o c k ; H al al c r e a t i v e s /A d o b e S t o c k ;
G r a f i c r i v e r/A d o b e S t o c k
THE "POLICY PROBLEM"
Ken Peacock, senior vice-president and
chief economist of the British Columbia
Business Council, thinks 2025 could sur-
prise on the downside, however, based on
what he considers some especially trou-
bling indicators:
PRIVATE-SECTOR PAYROLLS. While public sector
hiring has been brisk at all levels of govern-
ment and in Crown corporations, "over the
past two years we've had essentially zero
job growth in the private sector."
CAPITAL INVESTMENT. Spending on buildings,
infrastructure and even housing is much
lower than population growth justifies.
INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION. From a net intake of
20,000 to 40,000 people in recent years,
the flow went negative to a loss of 10,000
people in 2023-24.
Peacock attributes the souring eco-
nomic climate to a "policy problem"—a
cumulative piling-on of regulation (such as
the 24 policy measures that make up the
provincial government's CleanBC plan) and
destabilization of the land base through a
revised Land Act and efforts to accommo-
date First Nations. "All this is adding up,"
Peacock says.
TECHNOLOGY AND SERVICES
The category of "professional and
technical services," which includes
everything from accountants and
engineers to data hosting, has
seen huge growth since 2020 and
there's no reason to suppose it
won't continue.
TOURISM
The travel and hospitality sector
still may not surpass pre-pandemic
highs this year due to the global
economic slowdown and the
dropoff in visitors from China, Yu
says. There are potential catalysts
for travel to B.C., however, such
as the Web Summit, one of the
world's buzziest technology
conferences, coming in May (it will
also return in 2026 and 2027), the
Invictus Games in Whistler and the
FIFA World Cup in 2026.
FOREST PRODUCTS
Though an inherently renewable
industry, forestry seems to be stuck
in a slow, structural decline. Once
credited with generating 50 cents
of every dollar in B.C., the sector
now accounts for between 1.5 and
3 percent of
GDP, with its spinoff
effects registering no more than 10
percent. The combination of weak
markets, falling timber supply due
to beetles and conservation and a
new round of U.S. softwood lumber
tariffs has forest companies closing
mills for good now, with little to no
investment in new capacity. "Once
you close those mills, I don't see
them coming back," Yu says.
The outlook for major
export industries
