BCBusiness

14 To p : M i c h a e l P i d w ir n y ; illu s t r a t i o n : i S t o c k / S a k o r n S u k k a s e m s a k o r n B C B U S I N E S S . C A N O V E M B E R / D E C E M B E R 2 0 24 because it will moderate their famously cold temperatures, says Pidwirny, but the rest of the North American industry is in serious trouble. "We looked at the length of the ski season and we found that for ski resorts on the West Coast, 70 percent of them are doomed," he says. "There won't be a vi- able ski season." According to a 2024 study by researchers at the University of Waterloo and the University of Innsbruck, human-caused climate change has already shortened ski seasons, costing the U.S. ski industry an aver- age of US$252 million a year. By 2050, that number could climb to US$657 million in a low-emission environment, or US$1.4 billion under higher emissions—and those numbers don't account for the capital costs of expanded snowmak- ing, reduced revenue in related businesses from hotels to retail, or the hit to real estate values at ski destinations. Given that ski areas pump $2.15 billion into B.C.'s econ- omy and employ more than 16,000 people, the economic impact on the province could be significant. Christopher Nicholson, president of the Canada West Ski Areas Association, says that skier visits in B.C. last season "It was more variable in the local market, because you can make a decision that morning as to whether or not you're go- ing," he says. "And that's where you saw the greatest declines." To mitigate the changing patterns, Nicholson says, many ski areas are "snow farming"— that is, using wind fencing to catch snow when it does fly, and snowmaking during colder stretches—then stockpiling it for when temperatures tick up. They're also trying to reduce their reliance on winter rev- enues by beefing up summer activities like mountain biking and hiking, as well as weddings and conferences. "There are years, obviously, where it's tougher than others," says Nicholson, adding that operators plan for the worst but hope for the best. "But we're very similar to farmers. The ebb and flow of the seasons is something that is ingrained in ski area operations." Problem is, that ebb and flow is rapidly shifting, says Pid- wirny. He predicts that, before long, temperatures will rise enough that snow farming and snowmaking will no longer be viable solutions. "The overnight temperature has to be colder than minus 2, and the colder the better for artificial snow," he says. "So if it's mild and the nights aren't getting cold enough, you can't make it." What stood out for Pidwirny last year was that conditions were poor at resorts across North America—not just in the east or west—and that other climate-related events, like January's atmospheric river, served to amplify the already poor conditions. But people tend to have short memories when it comes to climate events, he says, and this season falls in a La Niña year, which could mean colder temperatures and more significant snowfall. In future, however, skiing may be reserved for the wealthy who can afford to fly to the few remaining snowy destina- tions. "It will become a sport for people who have lots of cash—and the number of skiers at places like Sunshine Village and Lake Louise will increase drastically if all these other resorts aren't functioning," he says. "They'll be able to charge whatever they want." Back in North Vancouver, Hollingworth has noticed the number of powder days gradually declining, and when they do happen, the snow isn't sticking around as long. He still tries to book several ski trips every year, but it's getting trick- ier to plan. For now, he and his family are still buying annual passes at Mount Seymour, but he's concerned about what's to come as climate change heats up the hills. "It's devastating, and so sad," says Hollingworth, who has become increasingly concerned about the perils of climate change. "It just seems like such a silly shame when you know there are things we can do about it. And people, for whatever reason, are un- willing or unaware of the risk and the task at hand." " We looked at the length of the ski sea- son and we found that for ski resorts on the West Coast, 70 per- cent of them are doomed. There won't be a viable ski season." —Michael Pidwirny, associate professor of earth, environmental and geographic sciences, UBC Okanagan were down by 1.2 million, or roughly 15 to 20 percent from the previous year. Larger destinations weren't as hard hit because visitors—many of them international—tend to book well in advance, but more regional hills that suffered poor snow conditions saw steeper drops. DOWNHILL FROM HERE? While some of Western Canada's ski resorts are positioned well for the future, others could suffer

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