With a mission to inform, empower, celebrate and advocate for British Columbia's current and aspiring business leaders, BCBusiness go behind the headlines and bring readers face to face with the key issues and people driving business in B.C.
Issue link: http://digital.canadawide.com/i/1512670
26 BC BU S I N E S S .C A J A N U A R Y 2 0 24 i S t o c k / C S A - P r i n t s t o c k Employment: say goodbye to WFH "There are growing signs that earlier labour market tightness is rapidly easing," RBC Economics noted in a provincial economic report in September. "Job va- cancies are down 28 percent from a year ago—the steepest fall among the prov- inces... Construction employment has plummeted 17 percent since January." Though unemployment remains low by historical standards, the job market is likely to soften further in 2024 as the major projects in the north of the province reach completion and job losses continue in the forest industry and related manufacturing. TD Economics projects an average unemployment rate for the year of 6.4 percent. Beginning last April, "we've seen a very clear shift in labour market condi- tions," Berlin says. Employment growth has slowed, the unemployment rate has risen, job vacancies have gone down and EI claims have gone up. In one sense that's good news, he says. At the end of the pandemic we were in a state of disequilibrium in the labour market and are now moving toward a better balance between the supply of and demand for workers. In the meantime, though, the job market statistics are going to look increasingly ugly. As it is, public-sector hiring has masked a 1.1-percent drop in private- sector employment over the past year, Peacock points out. "B.C. has seen no job growth in private-sector payrolls since January 2019." The job growth that is coming is from the public sector and from self-employ- ment, which to Yu indicates a deterio- ration in job quality. Expect more and more workers to bid farewell to remote and hybrid work arrangements as higher unemployment gives employers the upper hand, he says. "We're going to see more businesses looking to bring their people back on site more frequently." Immigration: unintended consequences The biggest factor keeping the Canadian economy from tipping into recession is unprecedented levels of immigration. B.C. accepted a record 150,000 international migrants in 2022 and at the time of writing was on track for 180,000 in 2023. "B.C.'s population growth is currently running at a four-decade high of 3.1 percent, sustaining aggregate demand for goods and services," RBC Economics noted in a report in September. With birth rates low and interprovincial migration turning negative, virtually all of that increase is coming from international arrivals. Most in business support the idea that high immigration levels are necessary in order to counteract low birth rates, the aging of our population and the slow and steady shrinking of the workforce. The B.C. Chamber's Famulak puts it this way: "We are all navigating an acute skilled la- bour shortage for which there is no single solution. Through 2024 and beyond, we need immigrants, we need to look at how to keep older people in the workforce, we need to tap into the under-represented and marginalized communities." But the influx, supported by the federal Liberal government's aggressive immigration targets, is contributing to the shortage of housing and putting a strain on infrastructure such as transportation and hospitals. It's also masking a decline in per-capita economic output. One sce- nario to consider for 2024 is a breakdown of the Liberal- NDP entente that has kept the minority Liberals in power. The op- position Conservative party, which has a wide lead in polls, could opt to scale back the Liberals' immigration targets should it come to power. Yes, it really is a new era in financial markets, 2023 seemed to confirm. But that's left some one-time performers from B.C. available at bargain prices, not to mention the prospects ready to break out A R I T Z I A It's been an annus horribilis for fashion retailer and former stock market star Aritzia (TSX:ATZ). First there were rising interest rates, which make life hard for growth stocks. Then there were slowing sales—a foretaste of recession that could crimp consumers' discretionary spending? Finally, simmering complaints about the corporate culture under founder and CEO Brian Hill boiled over in a scathing report by Business Insider. Then again, Lululemon went through a similar period of self-reflection a decade ago—you'll recall Chip Wilson's indelicate remarks about "some women's bodies"—and went on to reward loyal investors (if not always the founder) handsomely. 9 STOCKS TO WATCH IN 2024 E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K 2 0 2 4