With a mission to inform, empower, celebrate and advocate for British Columbia's current and aspiring business leaders, BCBusiness go behind the headlines and bring readers face to face with the key issues and people driving business in B.C.
Issue link: http://digital.canadawide.com/i/1512670
24 i S t o c k / b l a c k li g h t _ t r a c e ; I r i n a C h e r e m i s i n o v a B C B U S I N E S S . C A J A N U A R Y 2 0 24 E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K 2 0 2 4 3. B.C.'s relatively high exposure to the Chi- nese market will hurt exports here more than elsewhere, TD Economics observed in its fall Provincial Economic Forecast. 3 things making B.C. uniquely vulnerable That so-called "stagflation" scenario is affecting jurisdictions around North America, but B.C. has reasons to be especially fearful: 2. Since 2019, the province has been buoyed by unprecedented investment in the LNG Canada, Coastal Gaslink, Trans Mountain Expansion and Site C projects. But construction of these megaprojects is now winding down, leaving an economic hole. "What's going to fill it is very much a question," Peacock says. 1. Higher interest rates hit B.C. harder than other provinces as a result of our higher household debt loads, due mostly to higher home prices. Whereas a family in Vancouver might have a $1-million mortgage, its counterpart in Calgary will only have a $500,000 mortgage, and will be servicing that with a slightly higher household income, Central 1 Credit Union chief economist Bryan Yu explains. Gross domestic product: the return of the R-word "After expanding at a nation-matching 1.2 percent this year, we expect B.C.'s economy to endure a more pronounced downswing in 2024," the TD Economics team wrote. It foresees real GDP growth in the province of just 0.5 percent and employment growth of 0.1 percent, both well below the rate of population growth. For its part, the provincial government, in its fall budget update, projects 0.8 percent growth in 2024. That doesn't leave a lot of margin in case of unexpected shocks. Besides, it won't take a textbook recession to make times feel tough, says Greater Vancouver Board of Trade president and CEO Bridgitte Anderson: "There is significant concern from business that we are entering a high-cost, low-growth environment next year." "There's a very good chance we're in a recession right now. We just don't know it," adds Berlin. GDP growth was negative in the second quarter, and as of the time of writing the Q3 number was not yet available. "We need to plan, and to act, for what will likely be limited economic growth in the coming 12 months," says Fiona Famulak, president and CEO of the B.C. Chamber of Commerce. "This means governments need to focus their efforts on policies and programs that spur innovation, boost productivity and make it possible for businesses to weather any economic turbulence ahead."