BCBusiness

BCBUSINESS.CA DECEMBER/JANUARY 2019 BCBUSINESS 33 property markets. For existing homeowners, a rise in real estate values has yielded big nan- cial gains, but not without a cost, notes Isanna Biglands, a Toronto-based research associate with Environics Analytics. "With the combined e•ect of rising interest rates, mortgage and interest payments could be pinching the wallets of many households in British Columbia," Biglands says. "So although households have never been richer in terms of their assets, these rising interest rates put increased pressure on discretionary spending for households." If you don't already own a home, getting established in a community with costly real estate poses that much more of a nancial chal- lenge. That's why we added a new indicator to supplement the average-shelter-spending met- ric from previous years, which includes data for households that have already paid o• their mortgages and so doesn't reƒect true shelter costs if purchasing in 2019. Despite solid population growth, the Fraser Valley communities of Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Mission took a tumble in this year's ranking. Their weaknesses: below-average performances for income, cost of housing, commute times, housing starts and unemployment rate. However, Victoria su•ered the biggest fall, dragged down by low average incomes, includ- ing the least for residents under age 35 of any city on the list. One silver lining: with the prov- ince's lowest unemployment rate, it can look for- ward to higher incomes. The drastic change in Victoria's fortunes also owes something to another adjustment to this year's methodolo"y that breaks the Capital Region into its constitu- ent municipalities. This gave greater repre- sentation to other southern Vancouver Island municipalities while ltering out some of the region's higher-income bedroom communities at Victoria's expense. On a more positive note, the Cariboo made conspicuous gains, with Prince George and Average household income (maximum score of 10 points) This figure represents the average for 2018. To deter- mine a score out of 10, we gave the top average income 10 points and scored the other cities in proportion to that. Average household income under 35 (10 points) This value represents the 2018 average household income for primary income earners under the age of 35. Again, we gave the top average 10 points and scored the other cities in relation to that. Five-year average household income growth (15 points) This number represents the percentage income growth from 2013 to 2018. Assuming a floor of zero, the top value received 15 points, with the other cities scoring accordingly. Average household spending on recreation (10 points) This indicator measures household spending on all leisure tracked by Statistics Canada, from concerts and sporting events to recre- ational vehicles and home entertainment systems. Giving the city with the highest average recreation spending a 10, we ranked the others in relation to it. Average shelter spend- ing (10 points) This figure covers recur- rent housing-related living expenses, such as mortgage payments, rent and utilities, for 2018. The city with the lowest average shelter spending received a score of 10, with the other cities scor- ing in inverse proportion. Average value of primary real estate (5 points) This value measures the average price of primary real estate (i.e., not including secondary or recreational properties). We gave the lowest value 10 points and scored the other cities in inverse proportion. Average commute time (10 points) This indicator provides the average one-way commute time, in minutes, for all members of the employed labour force aged 15 and older. The city with the lowest average duration received a score of 10, with the other cities scoring in relation to that. Five-year population growth (10 points) This figure represents the proportional population growth of each city from 2013 to 2018. We limited the floor to zero and scored cities out of a maximum value of 10. Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10 points) This value is derived from the year-to-date housing starts from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s monthly Starts and Completion Sur- vey to the end of September 2018. Housing starts are divided by the total city population and multiplied by 10,000 to give the number of housing starts per 10,000 residents. The city with the highest number of housing starts per 10,000 residents received a score of 10, with the other cities scoring in relation to that. Unemployment rate (10 points) This number is the unemploy- ment rate from Statscan's Labour Force Survey for September 2018. We gave the lowest unemployment rate 10 points and scored the others in relation to that. How We Crunched the Numbers T o determine the Best Cities for Work in B.C., we examined 10 economic indicators with a variety of weightings, includ- ing seven carried over from last year and three new ones. This year the weighting was shifted slightly from lagging economic indicators, such as income growth, to more forward-looking, or leading, indicators like housing starts. Each city received a score out of a total of 100 points and is ranked accordingly. VICTORIA SUFFERED THE BIGGEST FALL, DRAGGED DOWN BY LOW AVERAGE INCOMES, INCLUDING THE LEAST FOR RESIDENTS UNDER AGE 35 OF ANY CITY ON THE LIST

• Cover